One year ago, on Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas, the militant terrorist group/governing authority of the Gaza Strip, launched a lightning assault on Jewish communities across the border in Israel. The bloodletting resulted in nearly 1,200 dead on the Israeli side with another 252 hostages seized in the strike and brought back to Gaza. 

The ramifications of the attack continue to reverberate across a region of the world long accustomed to ethnic and religious violence. The current spasm of barbarity threatens to further spiral out of control, involving Iran and the United States in a wider regional war that neither of these two prospective belligerents seemingly wants.

While the conflict has engendered often visceral rhetoric and demonstrations across the globe both in support of and in opposition to the primary protagonists in this tragic geopolitical drama, it is difficult to find much favor with either side.  Let’s review some of the core realities of the conflict to support that point. 

Bearing in mind that the sources of this historic enmity are complicated and long-standing, Hamas started the current war. Had they not savagely attacked innocent Israeli civilians one year ago, there would not be today over 40,000 Palestinian casualties and an utterly devastated Gaza Strip. While this author views Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s motives with a healthy dose of cynicism, the pre-attack leadership of Hamas showed repulsive contempt for their own citizens, knowing full well what the Israeli response would bring. In effect, they banked on heart-rending pictures of the suffering of Palestinian women and children to garner global support for their cause. 

Furthermore, from a political perspective, they chose the timing of the attack to scuttle warming relations between Tel Aviv and Saudi Arabia, a diplomatic eventuality that would have likely improved peace and security across the Middle East. Thus, in early October of last year, cynicism had no better champion than Hamas’ high command. 

Now to Israel. What started as a legitimate military response to track down and eliminate the Hamas leadership has grown to become Tel Aviv’s version of the United States’ post-9/11 global war on terror, which tragically scoured the globe in search of dragons to slay. The argument that Netanyahu’s destruction of the Gaza Strip has been punitively disproportionate holds a lot of water. The numbers of casualties do not lie. 

As of this writing (Oct. 6) the Israeli Defense Forces have initiated ground operations in southern Lebanon to strike Hezbollah, the virulently anti-Israeli Shia terrorist group/pseudo-governing party north of the border in Lebanon. The two foes last fought an open - and relatively inconclusive conflict - in the summer of 2006.  Since then, Hezbollah has significantly increased its military capabilities, supported closely by its malevolent patrons in Tehran.  Additionally, the group participated extensively in the defense of the murderous Bashar al-Assad regime in the Syrian civil war, gaining valuable combat experience in the process.  

The recent killings of the Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Iran and Hasan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, in Beirut highlight the effectiveness of Israel’s intelligence and military capabilities. Those faculties are being stretched to the limit, though, as Iran has recently upped the ante with another ballistic missile attack on Israel. The IDF is primed to respond (and may have already done so by the time you read this) against the mullahs in Iran, potentially widening the conflict to include the United States. 

Returning to Netanyahu, it is patently clear to this observer that he has no incentive to stop the fighting. Once the guns are silent and some form of sustainable ceasefire is arranged, Israel will undoubtedly go to the polls and Netanyahu will be hard-pressed to hold on to the prime ministership. That will open the door for the completion of an ongoing corruption trial against the prime minister. To put it bluntly, Netanyahu is a war leader whose political survival is now tied to the ongoing violence. 

In summary, the preceding 650 or so words of prose leads inexorably to the conclusion that there are no good guys in this story.

Robert Beck of Peterborough served for 30 years overseas with the United States government in embassies in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. He now teaches foreign policy classes at Keene State College’s Cheshire Academy for Lifelong Learning.